Upshot blog at NY Times thinks margin will be 15%. I think it could be a bit higher given the precincts that are out, and I do not think it will go lower than that.
Nate Cohn says their simulations are that pledged delegate split will come in around 139-108 or net +31 for Clinton.
When Steve Kornacki challenged Jeff Weaver — how can you to super delegates and ask for their support if you trail in both elected delegates and votes cast, and Weaver imho embarrassed himself by referring to the general election matchups claiming they all show Sanders as a stronger candidate.
Even were that true nationwide, the question is how would Sanders perform in battleground states? In that there is no doubt that Clinton performs well enough to carry VA and FL and except against Kasich Ohio. Kasich has not yet been subjected to a full vetting.
Again, like Ohio, it was Clinton who outperformed the polls, not Sanders. And Sanders again claimed he would win and lost by double digits.
And what a change — from Jeff Weaver blathering, MSNBC cuts to Chris Matthews (of whom I am not fond) talking with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
I promise not to spike the football — too hard.
But I have been hammered by analyzing polling data and explaining why Sanders could not win New York.
I suspect after these results one week from today will be a very hard night for Sanders as well — without making specific predictions, put the five states together, four of which are like NY closed primaries, Clinton will clearly come out of next week with more delegates than Sanders — I think she will pick up more net than she did tonight.
Sanders will continue. No doubt.
But I hope for his own credibility he steps back from the kind of rhetoric he has been offering, including tonight at Penn State.
Sorry folks, but as of now there is no path for Sanders to wind up with more pledged delegates or more popular votes.
We are getting close to the end of tonight’s contest. We are waiting for final margin and the delegate split, which we may not completely know until tomorrow or Thursday.
But we are also realistically either already at the end or awful close to it of a meaningful contest about who will be the nominee.
Congratulations to the Sanders team for how far they have come, for the people they have inspired.
And I’m happy to say #Imwithher!!
